The New Frontier of Externalisation: Safe Third Countries and Return Hubs – Key Changes and Implications

Externalisation has become a defining feature of European migration governance, characterised by coercive measures and serious human rights risks. Despite growing criticism, the EU continues to expand its externalisation agenda. Following the adoption of the New Pact on Migration and Asylum in May 2024 (Pact), the EU has shifted its focus to returns. Returns are now the new frontier of externalisation.

The European Commission has advanced several proposals to strengthen return enforcement, including a new Returns Regulation (negotiations opened in March 2026) and new amendments to the Asylum Procedures Regulation (adopted in February 2026). This article analyses these initiatives as part of a coordinated effort to externalise EU returns, focusing on the expanded “safe third country” concept and the creation of “return hubs”. Although presented as “innovative” and “out-of-the-box,” these ideas are neither new nor untested. They also remain legally questionable and largely ineffective. Yet, such strategies persist because they serve a political purpose: signalling resolve to a growing nationalist and right-wing populist EU electorate, while simultaneously sending a message of deterrence to prospective migrants.