The predictive value of discrete choice experiments in public health: An exploratory application

Benjamin H. Salampessy, Jorien Veldwijk, A.J. Schuit, Karolien Van Den Brekel-dijkstra, Rabin E. J. Neslo, G. Ardine De Wit, Mattijs S. Lambooij

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

54 Citations (Scopus)


The objective of this study was to assess the predictive value of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) in public health by comparing stated preferences to actual behavior.

780 Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients received a questionnaire, containing a DCE with five attributes related to T2DM patients’ willingness to participate in a combined lifestyle intervention. Panel mixed-multinomial-logit models were used to estimate the stated preferences based on 206 completed DCE questionnaires. Actual participation status was retrieved for 54 respondents based on patients’ medical records and a second questionnaire. Predicted and actual behavior data were compared at population level and at individual level.

Based on the estimated utility function, 81.8 % of all answers that individual respondents provided on the choice tasks were predicted correctly. The actual participation rate at the aggregated population level was minimally underestimated (70.1 vs. 75.9 %). Of all individual choices, 74.1 % were predicted correctly with a positive predictive value of 0.80 and a negative predictive value of 0.44.

Stated preferences derived from a DCE can adequately predict actual behavior in a public health setting.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)521-529
JournalThe Patient: Patient-Centered Outcomes Research
Issue number6
Publication statusPublished - 2015
Externally publishedYes


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