The procyclicality of banking: Evidence from the Euro area

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review


Loan loss provisions in the euro area are negatively related to GDP growth, i.e., they are procyclical. Loan loss provisions tend to be more procyclical at larger and better capitalized banks. The procyclicality of loan loss provisions can explain about two-thirds of the variation in bank capitalization over the business cycle. We estimate that provisioning procyclicality in the euro area is about twice as large as in other advanced economies. This difference reflects a larger procyclicality of provisioning in euro area countries already prior to euro adoption and the divergent growth experiences of euro area countries following the global financial crisis.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)496-527
JournalIMF Economic Review
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - Sept 2019


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