The relationship between job insecurity and psychological contract breach as conditional upon causal attributions: A within-person approach

In this longitudinal study, we explore the dynamic connection between job insecurity and psychological contract breach over time. Building on Attribution Theory and theoretical work on psychological contract breach, we investigate the reciprocal relationship between job insecurity and psychological contract breach with causal attributions potentially moderating this relationship. Specifically, blaming the organization for possible job loss in the future (i.e., causal attribution to the organization) was predicted to amplify this relationship, whereas blaming external factors such as the economic situation (i.e., causal attribution to external factors) was predicted to buffer this relationship. We collected three-wave cross-lagged panel data from a heterogenous sample of 1,994 Belgian workers from different sectors and socio-economic backgrounds. We applied Random Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Modeling to analyze the data. Within-person level results revealed that psychological contract breach consistently predicted subsequent job insecurity, whereas job insecurity did not forecast future psychological contract breach, preventing us from establishing a reciprocal relationship. However, in one of four moderation tests, causal attributions significantly moderated the job insecurity–psychological contract breach relationship: higher attributions to external factors at Time 1 unexpectedly unveiled a positive lagged relationship, as supported by the interaction plot. For higher attributions to the organization at Time 2, the interaction plot also indicated a positive lagged relationship. These findings are inconsistent over time and far from conclusive but do offer some initial indications that job insecurity is related to more future psychological contract breach under specific circumstances, indicating a reciprocal link. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.