The urban economics of retail

Using property-level data from 327 larger shopping areas in the Netherlands, we show that the spatial structure of a shopping area resembles a monocentric city in miniature. Just like a monocentric city, a shopping area has a pronounced centre where the rents are the highest and the vacancy the lowest, and a negative retail rent gradient from this centre to the edges. The average retail rent gradient is −17% per 100 m distance, and the vacancy is one and a half times higher at the edge than in the centre. Our model gives insights into how shopping areas respond to downfall in demand, both in the short and long run. Our data, covering the Great Recession, from 2009 to 2012, lend support to these predictions.