Two-way causation in life satisfaction research

Structural equation models with granger causation

Bruce Headey, R.J.A. Muffels

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

Abstract

Two-way causation issues are the bete noire of life satisfaction research. As acknowledged in several landmark reviews, many variables routinely reported as causes or determinants of life satisfaction could equally well be consequences, or perhaps both causes and consequences (Diener, 1984; Diener, Suh, Lucas and Smith, 1999; Argyle, 2001; Frey and Stutzer, 2002). These variables include one’s state of health, social support and participation, exercise, job satisfaction and satisfaction with one’s partner and family life. In previous attempts to disentangle two-way causation issues, a wide variety of statistical models have been deployed. Conflicting empirical results have been reported, together with concerns about model ‘goodness of fit’ and model stability. In this paper we estimate five-wave structural equation models using data from large, nationally representative panel surveys in Australia, Britain and Germany. The models are based on a modified concept of Granger-causation (Granger, 1969). The main intuition behind Granger-causation is that if lagged versions of time-series variable x have statistically significant effects on time-series variable y in equations in which multiple lagged versions of y are also included, then it can be inferred that x is one cause (or ‘Granger-cause’) of y. We adapt Granger’s approach, extending it to encompass two-way causation and panel survey data. It transpires that our Granger-style models have satisfactory fits to the panel data and are stable. Alternative models fit the data much less well. Substantively, we find that two-way causation is pervasive: all of the x variables mentioned above appear to be both causes and consequences of life satisfaction. With minor exceptions, results replicate across all three datasets, despite non-trivial differences between the measures used in the three countries. One implication is that researchers who have assumed one-way causation have seriously over-estimated the effects of x variables on LS. A second implication is that many people apparently experience multi-year gains or losses of life satisfaction rather than just recording short term fluctuations around their own normal level or ‘set-point’.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationBonn
PublisherInstitute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
Pages1-50
Number of pages51
Volume8665
Publication statusPublished - 2014

Publication series

NameIZA DP 8665

Fingerprint

structural model
cause
time series
social participation
intuition
job satisfaction
fluctuation
recording
social support
determinants
health
experience

Keywords

  • life satisfaction
  • health
  • job satisfaction
  • social behaviors
  • two-way causation
  • Granger-models
  • German (SOEP), British (BHPS) and Australian (HILDA) panel data

Cite this

Headey, B., & Muffels, R. J. A. (2014). Two-way causation in life satisfaction research: Structural equation models with granger causation. (pp. 1-50). (IZA DP 8665). Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
Headey, Bruce ; Muffels, R.J.A. / Two-way causation in life satisfaction research : Structural equation models with granger causation. Bonn : Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), 2014. pp. 1-50 (IZA DP 8665).
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Headey, B & Muffels, RJA 2014 'Two-way causation in life satisfaction research: Structural equation models with granger causation' IZA DP 8665, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Bonn, pp. 1-50.

Two-way causation in life satisfaction research : Structural equation models with granger causation. / Headey, Bruce; Muffels, R.J.A.

Bonn : Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), 2014. p. 1-50 (IZA DP 8665).

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

TY - UNPB

T1 - Two-way causation in life satisfaction research

T2 - Structural equation models with granger causation

AU - Headey, Bruce

AU - Muffels, R.J.A.

PY - 2014

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N2 - Two-way causation issues are the bete noire of life satisfaction research. As acknowledged in several landmark reviews, many variables routinely reported as causes or determinants of life satisfaction could equally well be consequences, or perhaps both causes and consequences (Diener, 1984; Diener, Suh, Lucas and Smith, 1999; Argyle, 2001; Frey and Stutzer, 2002). These variables include one’s state of health, social support and participation, exercise, job satisfaction and satisfaction with one’s partner and family life. In previous attempts to disentangle two-way causation issues, a wide variety of statistical models have been deployed. Conflicting empirical results have been reported, together with concerns about model ‘goodness of fit’ and model stability. In this paper we estimate five-wave structural equation models using data from large, nationally representative panel surveys in Australia, Britain and Germany. The models are based on a modified concept of Granger-causation (Granger, 1969). The main intuition behind Granger-causation is that if lagged versions of time-series variable x have statistically significant effects on time-series variable y in equations in which multiple lagged versions of y are also included, then it can be inferred that x is one cause (or ‘Granger-cause’) of y. We adapt Granger’s approach, extending it to encompass two-way causation and panel survey data. It transpires that our Granger-style models have satisfactory fits to the panel data and are stable. Alternative models fit the data much less well. Substantively, we find that two-way causation is pervasive: all of the x variables mentioned above appear to be both causes and consequences of life satisfaction. With minor exceptions, results replicate across all three datasets, despite non-trivial differences between the measures used in the three countries. One implication is that researchers who have assumed one-way causation have seriously over-estimated the effects of x variables on LS. A second implication is that many people apparently experience multi-year gains or losses of life satisfaction rather than just recording short term fluctuations around their own normal level or ‘set-point’.

AB - Two-way causation issues are the bete noire of life satisfaction research. As acknowledged in several landmark reviews, many variables routinely reported as causes or determinants of life satisfaction could equally well be consequences, or perhaps both causes and consequences (Diener, 1984; Diener, Suh, Lucas and Smith, 1999; Argyle, 2001; Frey and Stutzer, 2002). These variables include one’s state of health, social support and participation, exercise, job satisfaction and satisfaction with one’s partner and family life. In previous attempts to disentangle two-way causation issues, a wide variety of statistical models have been deployed. Conflicting empirical results have been reported, together with concerns about model ‘goodness of fit’ and model stability. In this paper we estimate five-wave structural equation models using data from large, nationally representative panel surveys in Australia, Britain and Germany. The models are based on a modified concept of Granger-causation (Granger, 1969). The main intuition behind Granger-causation is that if lagged versions of time-series variable x have statistically significant effects on time-series variable y in equations in which multiple lagged versions of y are also included, then it can be inferred that x is one cause (or ‘Granger-cause’) of y. We adapt Granger’s approach, extending it to encompass two-way causation and panel survey data. It transpires that our Granger-style models have satisfactory fits to the panel data and are stable. Alternative models fit the data much less well. Substantively, we find that two-way causation is pervasive: all of the x variables mentioned above appear to be both causes and consequences of life satisfaction. With minor exceptions, results replicate across all three datasets, despite non-trivial differences between the measures used in the three countries. One implication is that researchers who have assumed one-way causation have seriously over-estimated the effects of x variables on LS. A second implication is that many people apparently experience multi-year gains or losses of life satisfaction rather than just recording short term fluctuations around their own normal level or ‘set-point’.

KW - life satisfaction

KW - health

KW - job satisfaction

KW - social behaviors

KW - two-way causation

KW - Granger-models

KW - German (SOEP), British (BHPS) and Australian (HILDA) panel data

M3 - Discussion paper

VL - 8665

T3 - IZA DP 8665

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EP - 50

BT - Two-way causation in life satisfaction research

PB - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

CY - Bonn

ER -

Headey B, Muffels RJA. Two-way causation in life satisfaction research: Structural equation models with granger causation. Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). 2014, p. 1-50. (IZA DP 8665).