Ultimate 100m World Records Through Extreme-Value Theory

J.H.J. Einmahl, S.G.W.R. Smeets

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Abstract

We use extreme-value theory to estimate the ultimate world records for the 100m running, for both men and women. For this aim we collected the fastest personal best times set between January 1991 and June 2008. Estimators of the extreme-value index are based on a certain number of upper order statistics. To optimize this number of order statistics we minimize the asymptotic mean squared error of the moment estimator. Using the thus obtained estimate for the extreme-value index, the right endpoint of the speed distribution is estimated. The corresponding time can be interpreted as the estimated ultimate world record: the best possible time that could be run in the near future. We find 9.51 seconds for the 100m men and 10.33 seconds for the women. Running title. Ultimate 100m world records.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationTilburg
PublisherEconometrics
Number of pages15
Volume2009-57
Publication statusPublished - 2009

Publication series

NameCentER Discussion Paper
Volume2009-57

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Extreme Value Theory
Extreme Value Index
Order Statistics
Moment Estimator
Mean Squared Error
Estimate
Optimise
Minimise
Estimator

Cite this

Einmahl, J. H. J., & Smeets, S. G. W. R. (2009). Ultimate 100m World Records Through Extreme-Value Theory. (CentER Discussion Paper; Vol. 2009-57). Tilburg: Econometrics.
Einmahl, J.H.J. ; Smeets, S.G.W.R. / Ultimate 100m World Records Through Extreme-Value Theory. Tilburg : Econometrics, 2009. (CentER Discussion Paper).
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Einmahl, JHJ & Smeets, SGWR 2009 'Ultimate 100m World Records Through Extreme-Value Theory' CentER Discussion Paper, vol. 2009-57, Econometrics, Tilburg.

Ultimate 100m World Records Through Extreme-Value Theory. / Einmahl, J.H.J.; Smeets, S.G.W.R.

Tilburg : Econometrics, 2009. (CentER Discussion Paper; Vol. 2009-57).

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

TY - UNPB

T1 - Ultimate 100m World Records Through Extreme-Value Theory

AU - Einmahl, J.H.J.

AU - Smeets, S.G.W.R.

N1 - Subsequently published in Statistica Neerlandica (2011) Pagination: 15

PY - 2009

Y1 - 2009

N2 - We use extreme-value theory to estimate the ultimate world records for the 100m running, for both men and women. For this aim we collected the fastest personal best times set between January 1991 and June 2008. Estimators of the extreme-value index are based on a certain number of upper order statistics. To optimize this number of order statistics we minimize the asymptotic mean squared error of the moment estimator. Using the thus obtained estimate for the extreme-value index, the right endpoint of the speed distribution is estimated. The corresponding time can be interpreted as the estimated ultimate world record: the best possible time that could be run in the near future. We find 9.51 seconds for the 100m men and 10.33 seconds for the women. Running title. Ultimate 100m world records.

AB - We use extreme-value theory to estimate the ultimate world records for the 100m running, for both men and women. For this aim we collected the fastest personal best times set between January 1991 and June 2008. Estimators of the extreme-value index are based on a certain number of upper order statistics. To optimize this number of order statistics we minimize the asymptotic mean squared error of the moment estimator. Using the thus obtained estimate for the extreme-value index, the right endpoint of the speed distribution is estimated. The corresponding time can be interpreted as the estimated ultimate world record: the best possible time that could be run in the near future. We find 9.51 seconds for the 100m men and 10.33 seconds for the women. Running title. Ultimate 100m world records.

M3 - Discussion paper

VL - 2009-57

T3 - CentER Discussion Paper

BT - Ultimate 100m World Records Through Extreme-Value Theory

PB - Econometrics

CY - Tilburg

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Einmahl JHJ, Smeets SGWR. Ultimate 100m World Records Through Extreme-Value Theory. Tilburg: Econometrics. 2009. (CentER Discussion Paper).