Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation: Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaced by EBC DP 2012-018)

D. Pfajfar, B. Zakelj

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

Abstract

We establish several stylized facts about the behavior of individual uncertainty and disagreement between individuals when forecasting inflation in the laboratory. Subjects correctly perceive the underlying inflation uncertainty in only 60% of cases, which can be interpreted as the overconfidence bias. Determinants of individual uncertainty, dis- agreement among forecasters and properties of aggregate distribution are analyzed. We find that the interquartile range of the aggregate distribution has the highest correlation with inflation variability; however the average confidence interval performs best in a forecasting exercise. Allowing subjects to insert asymmetric confidence intervals results in wider upper intervals than lower intervals on average, thus perceiving higher uncertainty with respect to inflation increases. In different treatments we study the influence of different monetary policy designs on the formation of confidence bounds. Inflation targeting produces lower uncertainty and higher accuracy of intervals than inflation forecast targeting.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationTilburg
PublisherEBC
Volume2011-014
Publication statusPublished - 2011

Publication series

NameEBC Discussion Paper
Volume2011-014

Fingerprint

Uncertainty
Inflation forecasting
Confidence interval
Inflation variability
Stylized facts
Inflation uncertainty
Inflation forecasts
Overconfidence
Inflation
Exercise
Inflation targeting
Targeting
Confidence
Monetary policy
Policy design

Keywords

  • Laboratory Experiments
  • Confidence Bounds
  • New Keynesian Model
  • Inflation Expectations

Cite this

Pfajfar, D., & Zakelj, B. (2011). Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation: Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaced by EBC DP 2012-018). (EBC Discussion Paper; Vol. 2011-014). Tilburg: EBC.
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abstract = "We establish several stylized facts about the behavior of individual uncertainty and disagreement between individuals when forecasting inflation in the laboratory. Subjects correctly perceive the underlying inflation uncertainty in only 60{\%} of cases, which can be interpreted as the overconfidence bias. Determinants of individual uncertainty, dis- agreement among forecasters and properties of aggregate distribution are analyzed. We find that the interquartile range of the aggregate distribution has the highest correlation with inflation variability; however the average confidence interval performs best in a forecasting exercise. Allowing subjects to insert asymmetric confidence intervals results in wider upper intervals than lower intervals on average, thus perceiving higher uncertainty with respect to inflation increases. In different treatments we study the influence of different monetary policy designs on the formation of confidence bounds. Inflation targeting produces lower uncertainty and higher accuracy of intervals than inflation forecast targeting.",
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Pfajfar, D & Zakelj, B 2011 'Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation: Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaced by EBC DP 2012-018)' EBC Discussion Paper, vol. 2011-014, EBC, Tilburg.

Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaced by EBC DP 2012-018). / Pfajfar, D.; Zakelj, B.

Tilburg : EBC, 2011. (EBC Discussion Paper; Vol. 2011-014).

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

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AB - We establish several stylized facts about the behavior of individual uncertainty and disagreement between individuals when forecasting inflation in the laboratory. Subjects correctly perceive the underlying inflation uncertainty in only 60% of cases, which can be interpreted as the overconfidence bias. Determinants of individual uncertainty, dis- agreement among forecasters and properties of aggregate distribution are analyzed. We find that the interquartile range of the aggregate distribution has the highest correlation with inflation variability; however the average confidence interval performs best in a forecasting exercise. Allowing subjects to insert asymmetric confidence intervals results in wider upper intervals than lower intervals on average, thus perceiving higher uncertainty with respect to inflation increases. In different treatments we study the influence of different monetary policy designs on the formation of confidence bounds. Inflation targeting produces lower uncertainty and higher accuracy of intervals than inflation forecast targeting.

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