Unemployment Transitions to Stable and Unstable Jobs Before and During the Crisis

A. Nagore Garcia, A.H.O. van Soest

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

618 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Using administrative records data from Spanish Social Security, we analyse the pattern and the determinants of individual unemployment benefit spell durations. We compare a period of expansion (2005-2007) and the recent recession (2009-2011), allowing us to determine the impact of the current
crisis. In line with the duality that characterizes the Spanish labour market, we distinguish between exits to a stable job and exits to an unstable job. We estimate a Multivariate Mixed Proportional Hazard Model for each time period. We find similar effects of the crisis for stable and unstable jobs, which are
particularly strong in the first year of the spell. Moreover, slight negative duration dependence is found, especially for stable jobs in the expansion period until the time of unemployment benefit expires. Individuals who are most affected by the financial crisis tend to be males, those aged 16-24 and 40-51
years, those living in regions with higher unemployment rates, individuals who are less qualified or work in manual occupations (particularly construction) and immigrants.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationTilburg
PublisherEconometrics
Number of pages35
Volume2014-026
Publication statusPublished - 7 Apr 2014

Publication series

NameCentER Discussion Paper
Volume2014-026

Fingerprint

Unemployment
Exit
Unemployment benefits
Social security
Immigrants
Proportional hazards model
Financial crisis
Duration dependence
Recession
Unemployment rate
Duality
Labour market

Keywords

  • unemployment durations
  • Business cycle
  • dual labour markets
  • re-employment probability

Cite this

Nagore Garcia, A., & van Soest, A. H. O. (2014). Unemployment Transitions to Stable and Unstable Jobs Before and During the Crisis. (CentER Discussion Paper; Vol. 2014-026). Tilburg: Econometrics.
Nagore Garcia, A. ; van Soest, A.H.O. / Unemployment Transitions to Stable and Unstable Jobs Before and During the Crisis. Tilburg : Econometrics, 2014. (CentER Discussion Paper).
@techreport{9292d3ceb2114fc4a7f2934f81f15ae9,
title = "Unemployment Transitions to Stable and Unstable Jobs Before and During the Crisis",
abstract = "Using administrative records data from Spanish Social Security, we analyse the pattern and the determinants of individual unemployment benefit spell durations. We compare a period of expansion (2005-2007) and the recent recession (2009-2011), allowing us to determine the impact of the currentcrisis. In line with the duality that characterizes the Spanish labour market, we distinguish between exits to a stable job and exits to an unstable job. We estimate a Multivariate Mixed Proportional Hazard Model for each time period. We find similar effects of the crisis for stable and unstable jobs, which areparticularly strong in the first year of the spell. Moreover, slight negative duration dependence is found, especially for stable jobs in the expansion period until the time of unemployment benefit expires. Individuals who are most affected by the financial crisis tend to be males, those aged 16-24 and 40-51years, those living in regions with higher unemployment rates, individuals who are less qualified or work in manual occupations (particularly construction) and immigrants.",
keywords = "unemployment durations, Business cycle, dual labour markets, re-employment probability",
author = "{Nagore Garcia}, A. and {van Soest}, A.H.O.",
year = "2014",
month = "4",
day = "7",
language = "English",
volume = "2014-026",
series = "CentER Discussion Paper",
publisher = "Econometrics",
type = "WorkingPaper",
institution = "Econometrics",

}

Nagore Garcia, A & van Soest, AHO 2014 'Unemployment Transitions to Stable and Unstable Jobs Before and During the Crisis' CentER Discussion Paper, vol. 2014-026, Econometrics, Tilburg.

Unemployment Transitions to Stable and Unstable Jobs Before and During the Crisis. / Nagore Garcia, A.; van Soest, A.H.O.

Tilburg : Econometrics, 2014. (CentER Discussion Paper; Vol. 2014-026).

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

TY - UNPB

T1 - Unemployment Transitions to Stable and Unstable Jobs Before and During the Crisis

AU - Nagore Garcia, A.

AU - van Soest, A.H.O.

PY - 2014/4/7

Y1 - 2014/4/7

N2 - Using administrative records data from Spanish Social Security, we analyse the pattern and the determinants of individual unemployment benefit spell durations. We compare a period of expansion (2005-2007) and the recent recession (2009-2011), allowing us to determine the impact of the currentcrisis. In line with the duality that characterizes the Spanish labour market, we distinguish between exits to a stable job and exits to an unstable job. We estimate a Multivariate Mixed Proportional Hazard Model for each time period. We find similar effects of the crisis for stable and unstable jobs, which areparticularly strong in the first year of the spell. Moreover, slight negative duration dependence is found, especially for stable jobs in the expansion period until the time of unemployment benefit expires. Individuals who are most affected by the financial crisis tend to be males, those aged 16-24 and 40-51years, those living in regions with higher unemployment rates, individuals who are less qualified or work in manual occupations (particularly construction) and immigrants.

AB - Using administrative records data from Spanish Social Security, we analyse the pattern and the determinants of individual unemployment benefit spell durations. We compare a period of expansion (2005-2007) and the recent recession (2009-2011), allowing us to determine the impact of the currentcrisis. In line with the duality that characterizes the Spanish labour market, we distinguish between exits to a stable job and exits to an unstable job. We estimate a Multivariate Mixed Proportional Hazard Model for each time period. We find similar effects of the crisis for stable and unstable jobs, which areparticularly strong in the first year of the spell. Moreover, slight negative duration dependence is found, especially for stable jobs in the expansion period until the time of unemployment benefit expires. Individuals who are most affected by the financial crisis tend to be males, those aged 16-24 and 40-51years, those living in regions with higher unemployment rates, individuals who are less qualified or work in manual occupations (particularly construction) and immigrants.

KW - unemployment durations

KW - Business cycle

KW - dual labour markets

KW - re-employment probability

M3 - Discussion paper

VL - 2014-026

T3 - CentER Discussion Paper

BT - Unemployment Transitions to Stable and Unstable Jobs Before and During the Crisis

PB - Econometrics

CY - Tilburg

ER -

Nagore Garcia A, van Soest AHO. Unemployment Transitions to Stable and Unstable Jobs Before and During the Crisis. Tilburg: Econometrics. 2014 Apr 7. (CentER Discussion Paper).