Very Simple Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics

J.H. Abbring, J.R. Campbell, J. Tilly, N. Yang

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Abstract: This paper develops an econometric model of industry dynamics for concentrated markets that can be estimated very quickly from market-level data on demand shifters and the number of producers. We show that the model has an essentially unique symmetric Markov-perfect equilibrium that can be calculated from the xed points of low-dimensional contraction mappings. We characterize the model's identi cation and extend Rust's (1987) nested xed point estimator to account for the observable implications of mixed strategies on survival. We illustrate the model's application with ten years of County Business Patterns data from Motion Picture Theaters in 573 Micropolitan Statistical Areas.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationTilburg
Number of pages54
Publication statusPublished - 2014

Publication series

NameCentER Discussion Paper


  • demand uncertainty
  • dynamic oligopoly
  • rm entry and exit
  • Markov-perfect equilibrium
  • nested xed point estimator
  • sunk costs
  • toughness of competition


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